Research Paper Volume 13, Issue 4 pp 5748—5803

Global incidence and mortality of breast cancer: a trend analysis

Junjie Huang1, , Paul SF Chan1, , Veeleah Lok1, , Xiao Chen1, , Hanyue Ding1, , Yinzi Jin2, , Jinqiu Yuan3, , Xiang-qian Lao1,4, , Zhi-Jie Zheng2, , Martin CS Wong1,2,5, ,

  • 1 The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
  • 2 Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
  • 3 Scientific Research Centre, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
  • 4 School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
  • 5 School of Public Health, The Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China

Received: June 1, 2020       Accepted: December 18, 2020       Published: February 11, 2021
How to Cite

Copyright: © 2021 Huang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.


This study aimed to evaluate the global incidence and mortality trends of breast cancer among females by region and age in the past decade. We retrieved country-specific incidence and mortality data from the Global Cancer Observatory up to 2018 and Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-XI, the Nordic Cancer Registries, the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results, and WHO mortality database up to 2016. The temporal patterns were using Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) by joinpoint regression analysis. Most countries showed an increasing trend in incidence. For the older population aged ≥ 50 years, Japan (5.63, 4.90-6.36), Slovakia (3.63, 3.03-4.22), China (2.86, 2.00-3.72) reported the most prominent increase. For young females (<50 years), Japan (AAPC=3.81, 95% CI=2.71-4.93), Germany (AAPC=2.60, 95% CI=1.41-3.81) and Slovakia (1.91, 1.13-2.69) reported the most drastic rise. Similarly, 12 countries showed an incidence increase among women aged <40 years. As for mortality, the Philippines (4.36, 3.65-5.07), Thailand (4.35, 3.12-5.59), Colombia (0.75, 0.08-1.42), and Brazil (0.44, 0.19-0.68) reported a significant increase. The disease burden of breast cancer showed an increasing trend in a large number of populations. More preventive efforts are recommended for these countries. Further research should explore the underlying reasons for these epidemiological trends.


AAPC: Average Annual Percent Change; CI: confidence interval; DALYs: million Disability Adjusted Life Years; HDI: Human Development Index; ASR: age-standardized rate; CI5: Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series I-X; SEER: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; NORDCAN: Nordic Cancer Registries; WHO: World Health Organization; ICD-10: International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems-10th Revision codes.