Research Paper Advance Articles
Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperative prediction of cervical lymph node involvement in thyroid microcarcinoma
- 1 Zhejiang Chinese Medical University Affiliated Hangzhou First Hospital, Hangzhou First People’s Hospital, Hangzhou 310006, Zhejiang, China
- 2 Department of Medical Oncology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310000, Zhejiang, China
- 3 Department of Oncological Surgery, Affiliated Hangzhou First People’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310006, Zhejiang, China
- 4 Department of Ultrasound, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, Zhejiang, China
received: October 3, 2019 ; accepted: March 2, 2020 ; published: March 13, 2020 ;https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.102915
How to Cite
Copyright © 2020 Lu et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Cervical regional lymph node involvement (CRLNI) is common in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), but the way to deal with cervical lymph node involvement of clinically negative PTMC is controversial. We studied data of patients histologically confirmed PTMC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and Department of Surgical Oncology in Hangzhou First People’s Hospital (China). We screened 6 variables of demographic and clinicopathological characteristics as potential predictors and further constructed a lymph node involvement model based on the independent predictors including age, race, sex, extension, multifocality and tumor size. The model was validated by both the internal and the external testing sets, and the visual expression of the model was displayed by a nomogram. As a result, the C-index of this predictive model in the training set was 0.766, and the internal and external testing sets through cross-validation were 0.753 and 0.668, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.766 for the training set. We also performed a Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), which showed that predicting the cervical lymph node involvement risk applying this nomogram would be better than having all patients or none patients use this nomogram.